![]() Countries should protect and promote reproductive rights ![]() Meanwhile in China, projections indicate that the percentage of the population at ages 25-64 will peak in the coming years, closing the window of opportunity created by the changing age distribution.Įarlier this spring, UN DESA released the World Social Report 2023: Leaving No One Behind In An Ageing World, examining the challenges and opportunities of population ageing for countries at different stages of the process. In India, the number of adults of working age is projected to continue increasing both in number and as a proportion of the total population through mid-century, providing opportunities for faster economic growth over the next few decades. Nevertheless, as a proportion of the total population, the growth of the older population in India will be much slower than in China. 153 from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), entitled “India overtakes China as the world’s most populous country”, between 20, the number of persons aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China and to increase by more than double in India. Number of older persons is growing rapidly in both China and IndiaĪccording to Policy Brief No. India’s lower human capital investment and slower economic growth during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to a more gradual fertility decline than in China. India also enacted policies to discourage the formation of large families and to slow population growth, including through its national family welfare programme beginning in the 1950s. These policies, together with investments in human capital and gender equality, contributed to China’s plummeting fertility rate in the 1970s and to the more gradual declines that followed in the 1980s and 1990s. India’s current fertility rate (2.0 births per woman) is just below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1, the level required for population stabilization in the long run in the absence of migration.ĭuring the second half of the 20th century, both countries made concerted efforts to curb rapid population growth through policies that targeted fertility levels. In 2022, China had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates (1.2 births per woman). For India, it took three and a half decades to experience the same fertility reduction that occurred in China over a seven-year period during the 1970s. Fertility in China fell sharply to fewer than three births per woman by the end of the 1970s. In 1971, China and India had nearly identical levels of total fertility, with just under six births per woman over a lifetime. Fertility is a key driver of population trends By contrast, India’s population is expected to continue growing for several decades. Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century. This forecast is based on the latest United Nations estimates and projections of the global population.Ĭhina’s population reached its peak size of 1.426 billion in 2022 and has started to fall. By the end of this month, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China. 24 April 2023 - China will soon cede its long-held status as the world’s most populous country. ![]()
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